Why the war in Iraq

With the war the Republicans are trying to retain power in the United States over the next several years

On Tuesday, ended the last day that U.S. President George W. Bush took Saddam Hussein to finally disarm or leave Iraq. The war seemed to be inevitable. But now America has suffered the first defeat - in fact, the entire consignment of military campaign against the regime of Hussein, the Americans will have to bear alone. Apart from the inevitable loss of human life, in the event of war the U.S. would have to spend on a demonstration of force about 120 billion dollars. However, it seems, the administration of Bush Jr. is ready to pay dearly to extend their stay in power.

On a possible military action against Iraq, the U.S. administration began to talk more in the past year. Since then, a statement the White House regularly forced «dance», stock and oil markets, hurting the economies of all developed countries, including the United States. «So far, the market did not believe the U.S. allegations that all will end quickly and easily - said RBC daily Sergei Voloboev, vice-president of the management of the transition economies, the bank Credit Suisse First Boston. - So all the news about the imminent start of the campaign led to a drop in the dollar, including the euro ». According to Mr. Voloboeva, the United States the high oil prices still beat stronger than in Europe. «The United States is the world's largest importer of oil - he said. - Meanwhile, many European countries such as Britain and the Netherlands, along with its oil imports are at their fields ». In addition, notes Mr. Voloboev, a greater degree of uncertainty in the States will help the economy, compared with Europe, because capital markets are America's more important source of investment funds. Thus, each extra day of delay hurts the U.S. economy, already in a crisis.

Nevertheless, the White House has so far preferred to linger in an attempt to enlist the support of its allies. According to experts, it was not so much the United States need to «preserve the person» in the international arena, but in order to pass on part of the Allied military spending. «Simply stay U.S. troops in the Persian Gulf is 110-115 million dollars a day - told RBC daily senior researcher at the PIR Center and a leading Russian expert on the American armed forces Dmitry Evstafiev. - The reconstruction of Iraq and the strengthening of the friendly regime will cost approximately 15 billion ». In his view, still 5-7 billion would be required to rebuild the oil industry if the U.S. wants to control it. As a result, according to Mr. Evstafieva, this war will cost America around 120-130 billion dollars. Faced with the need to so much expense, the Americans are «must create a situation where at least part of the money to pay other», said Dmitry Evstafiev. For example, he recalled, the «desert storm» United States actually did not pay a penny - an operation funded primarily Japan, Arab countries and Germany. But now the situation is quite different in the world - Japan is in deep crisis, and Germany at this time strictly opposed the war. Therefore, now the U.S. is no longer able to povoevat for someone else's expense. «In addition, after the failure Azorskogo summit, where the United States not yet received sufficient support for its allies, of any international solution to the crisis is not the speech - said Mr Evstafiev. - Now, this war is only the United States ».

What makes the U.S. is still going at such a serious political and financial costs? The first reason, which usually say experts - oil. «Saudi Arabia is concentrated about 25% of the world's oil reserves, Kuwait - 11% in Iraq - another 11%, - told RBC daily the Director of the Center for International Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences Anatoly Utkin. - The amount of reserves in this region represent about 50% of total, and this is a great motive ». But Dmitry Evstafiev believes that the oil factor for the United States are not so important. «Iraqi oil - is not an end in itself - he said. - Iraq's oil industry needs to be rebuild, because its power had long been worn out ». Thus, the release of the active world markets of Iraqi oil, which so many analysts say could become the «long» the game, which extend for 5 - 6 years old, said Mr. Evstafiev. In his view, even in the active development of oil resources of Iraq, the U.S. can earn no more than 5 billion dollars a year, but such gains do not justify the cost of a military operation. World oil prices could drop, and without the influx of Iraqi oil for a number of other reasons. «For example, could increase exports from Russia: Transneft plans to build power, run Sakhalin oil projects - said senior researcher at the PIR Center. - In addition, the crisis is the oil industry of Venezuela ». At the level of prices, according to Dmitry Evstafieva may affect the development of technology. Thus, the sharp decline in oil prices in the late 70's was largely due to the introduction of energy-saving technologies, he notes.

The second possible motive, which is often cited analysts - is to stimulate the U.S. economy from a sharp increase in government expenditures and defense orders. According to Dmitry Evstafieva, this factor certainly plays a role, but he is not leading and the problems in the American economy is also not solve. U.S. defense spending, and so very high - they account for about 100 - 120 billion a year, he notes. During the operation in Iraq will increase, mainly the costs of the staff, and this is not the greatest art in military spending. With respect to the procurement of new equipment, weapons and ammunition, their holdings in the United States is great and they have enough for the war in Iraq, said Mr. Evstafiev. To restore these stocks will then gradually, he notes, so the cost of an additional defense orders will be stretched over time and the dramatic impetus for the U.S. economy will not.

Thus, if more conventional economic preconditions for war is very controversial, is another reason - the political, which interviewed RBC daily, experts believe the main part of the logic of the White House. According to Anatoly Utkin, the main desire of the Bush administration - to preserve and strengthen the global image of America. «This ruling in Washington, a narrow group of people believed that history will not forgive them if they are weak and do not seize the historic moment when no one can control the United States, - said Mr. Utkin. - Furthermore, if the Americans did not begin to attack who they believe tomorrow? »« Republican administration is razdula issue Hussein to universal scale - agrees Dmitry Evstafiev. - The question now is this: if you razduli issue and can not decide - Who are you then? »In his opinion, once persuaded to agree to the elite of the U.S. war in Iraq, Bush Jr. has made this issue a key. And in case of failure a second time this support, it is no longer available. Meanwhile, in November 2004 pending the election of Bush, who believes Mr. Evstafiev, his opponent did not make the Democratic Party, and business.

In recent years, according to Dmitry Evstafieva, American business has shown displeasure economic program the White House. The essence of this program is that the state allows companies to free up investment funds. But at the same time to invest their companies would have to be there, where they will indicate the White House. Against this background, said Mr. Evstafiev, the administration created the Ministry of National Security - этакое NKVD, which combines the functions of investigation and political, and business fraud. In addition, the expert noted, in recent times has increased pressure on the «Big Six» American investment banks. Meanwhile, the company associated with the ruling Republican administration, no one moves. «The purpose of the administration - a system in which the portion of the American elite, which focuses on Bush will be able to remain in power for 15 - 20 years - said senior researcher at the PIR Center. - To do this (American) business must understand that there is no alternative to the Republicans in the coming years, no ». According to D. Evstafieva, successful war in Iraq - the only way for George W. Bush to strengthen his popularity and remain the only leader the country. «In the United States can not be« put »president for money, - said Mr. Evstafiev. - With the high popularity rating of any business is no longer able to cope ».